Thursday, November 3, 2011

The Veterans Committee Ballot

Gil Hodges
Ron Santo
Ken Boyer
Jim Kaat
Luis Tiant
Minnie Minoso
Tony Oliva
Allie Reynolds
Buzzie Bavasi
Charlie Finley

There will be a post tomorrow explaining who should be put in.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Breaking away from traditional awards

In the traditional BBWAA there are only awards for the Most Valuable Players, Cy Young Award, Rookie of the Year, and Managers of the Year. But there's not really a position by position award for each league, like we think there should be.  Each award will be named after a former baseball player who best embodies what we are looking for each award.

The Yogi Berra Award (American League Catcher of the Year)
The contenders (in alphabetical order):
1. Alex Avila- fWAR: 5.5 rWAR: 5.4 .295/.389/.506/.383 143 OPS+
2. Mike Napoli- fWAR: 5.6 rWAR: 5.5 .320/.414/.631/.444 171 OPS+
3. Matt Wieters- fWAR: 4.3 rWAR:.4.0 .262/.328/.450/.339 113 OPS+
4. Carlos Santana- fWAR: 3.8 .239/.351/.457/.349
5. Russell Martin- fWAR: 3.1 .237/.324/.408/.325

In the American League, I think Avila had a better season than Napoli at being a catcher primarily because he was the main catcher for much of the year.  I'd vote 1. Avila 2. Napoli 3. Wieters
The Johnny Bench Award (National League Catcher of the Year)
The contenders (in alphabetical order):
1. Nick Hundley- fWAR:3.3  rWAR: 3.4 .288/.347/.477/.354 132 OPS+
2. Chris Iannetta- fWAR: 3.3 rWAR: 2.6 .238/.370/.414/.347 102 OPS+
3. Brian McCann- fWAR: 3.7 rWAR: 2.5 .270/.351/.466/.348 124 OPS+
4. Yadier Molina- fWAR: 4.1 rWAR: 3.9 .305/.349/.465/.349 126 OPS+
5. Miguel Montero- fWAR: 4.3 rWAR: 4.5 .282/.351/.469/.351 121 OPS+
6. Wilson Ramos- fWAR: 3.1 rWAR: 2.5 .267/.334/.445/.332 113 OPS+

For the National League, it comes down to Molina vs. Montero.  I'd be more inclined to give it to Montero because he had a slightly better offensive season than Molina although it is very close.  For 3rd place, I'd be tempted to place Hundley there based on his overall numbers and the general weaknesses of the other catchers listed.  Although, McCann wouldn't be a bad choice in 3rd place either.
1. Miguel Montero 2. Yadier Molina 3. Nick Hundley

First Basemen of the Year Awards

Continuing our fake awards series with first basemen of the year.


Lou Gehrig Award (Best American League First Baseman):

Contenders:

  1. Miguel Cabrera-.344/448/.586/.436
  2. Adrian Gonzalez-.338/.410/.548/.406
  3. Mike Napoli- .320/.414/.631/.444



Miguel Cabrera- While most of the talk this year about the Detroit Tigers, focused on Justin Verlander being an incredible pitcher who was willing his team to victories even when he wasn't pitching, people tended to forget that Cabrera was having yet another MVP-esque season. Cabrera's fWAR was 7.3 which led all American League First Basemen. While WAR shouldn't be treated as an end-all, be-all stat it's hard not to see his dominance this season. He led the American League in both batting average and on-base percentage. Finished 2nd among qualified batters for slugging percentage (Napoli did not qualify). He also finished 2nd in OPS among qualified batters in the American League. He finished tied for first in OPS+ and tied for first in runs created. About the only negative thing you can say about Cabrera is that his defense well below average which limits his value somewhat. I don't really have that big of a problem with it, as first base is not where you put your best defender anyways. Further, if anyone can put up this kind of offense, it almost off-sets the fact that he can't play defense.



Adrian Gonzalez- He was my pick pre-season pick for the American League MVP, while the historic Red Sox collapse and the rise of Jacoby Ellsbury as a star player will make sure he does not get the MVP award, he still put up a great season in his first season in Boston. He finished 2nd in batting average, 3rd in On-Base percentage, and 7th in slugging percentage among qualified batters in the American League. His OPS was 3rd as was his OPS+ and he finished 4th in Runs Created. Unlike Cabrera, Gonzalez can handle first base defensively, as well. His defense is appreciated by both stats nerds (or whatever we're called) and traditionalists, alike. Side note: it's amazing that traditionalists and sabremetricians can agree on defense on so many people (Cabrera, Gonzalez, etc.) but yet as soon as they disagree on one player it's as if neither of them agreed on even one player.



Mike Napoli- Napoli had a great season. There is no doubting that. It's just a matter of how you much do you value someone who is playing 40 games less than those he is competing against. Had Napoli qualified he would have led the league in slugging percentage and came in second in OPS assuming the same type of play. Even if his slugging percentage dipped 25 points, he still would have led the league. It's hard for me to look past the fact that he played 40 less games than Cabrera and Gonzalez.



Who I'd vote for: 1. Miguel Cabrera 2. Adrian Gonzalez 3. Mike Napoli



Jeff Bagwell Award (will be re-named Albert Pujols Award once he retires):

Contenders:

  1. Prince Fielder- .299/.415/.566/.408
  2. Albert Pujols- .299/.366/.541/.385
  3. Joey Votto- .309/.416/.531/.403



Prince Fielder- The National League's top two contenders are a little bit closer than it was in the American League. Fielder had a great season at the plate finishing 2nd in the league in On-base percentage and 3rd in slugging percentage. He finished 3rd in OPS, 4th in OPS+, and 3rd in Runs Created. However, his defense was lacking. It doesn't bother me that he's worse defensively than most first basemen. It's just that if I was voting for the best first basemen and one is a worse defensive player than another I do have to account for that somewhere. In the American League, it wasn't a problem because Cabrera had a much better season on offense than Gonzalez did. Whereas, in the National League Votto and Fielder had nearly identical offensive seasons. The main difference being that Fielder had a higher slugging percentage.



Albert Pujols- With all due respect to Albert Pujols, this was the worst season of his career. Most players would kill to have one season this good but for Pujols this was a down year. It was still an all-star caliber year but yet the worst for him.



Joey Votto- We'll compare him directly to his only competitor in this fake award process, Prince Fielder.

Joey Votto: .309 AVG

Prince Fielder: .299 AVG

Votto: .416 OBP

Fielder: .415 OBP

Votto: .531 SLG%

Fielder: .566 SLG%

Votto: .403 wOBA

Fielder: .408 wOBA

Votto: 155 wRC+

Fielder: 162 wRC+

Votto: .947 OPS

Fielder: .981 OPS

Votto: 156 OPS+

Fielder: 164 OPS+

Votto: 133 Runs Created (per Baseball-reference)

Fielder: 135 Runs Created (per Baseball-reference)

Defense- Advantage: Votto

I won't go through the numbers on defense but everything I've seen has Votto demonstrably better defensively compared to Fielder. Fielder has a slight advantage over Votto in terms of offense but I think Votto makes up for it in defense. Either one would be a good choice to win first basemen of the year.

How I'd vote: 1. Joey Votto 2. Prince Fielder 3. Albert Pujols

Friday, October 21, 2011

Top 100 Catchers of All-Time

100. Brian Harper
99. Mike LaValliere
98. Hank Gowdy
97. Babe Phelps
96. Ron Hassey
95. Jerry Grote
94. Dan Wilson
93. Shanty Hogan
92. Hank Severeid
91. Mike Macfarlane
90. Doggie Miller
89. A.J. Pryzinski
88. Harry Danning
87. Duke Farrell
86. Todd Hundley
85. Johnny Edwards
84. Steve Yeager
83. Jody Davis
82. Phil Masi
81. Muddy Ruel
80. Yadier Molina
79. Brad Ausmus
78. Don Slaught
77. Brandon Inge
76. Chief Zimmer
75. Frankie Hayes
74. Gus Triandos
73. Deacon McGuire
72. Bob O'Farrell
71. Johnny Bassler
70. Paul Lo Duca
69. Stan Lopata
68. Ernie Whitt
67. Bubbles Hargrave
66. Steve O'Neill
65. Mike Napoli
64. Rick Dempsey
63. Russell Martin
62. Ray Schalk
61. Benito Santiago
60. Jason Varitek
59. Spud Davis
58. Andy Seminick
57. Rick Ferrell
56. Ramon Hernandez
55. Fred Carroll
54. Johnny Kling
53. John Roseboro
52. Terry Kennedy
51. Joe Ferguson
50. Tony Pena
49. Charles Johnson
48. Chief Meyers
47. Bob Boone
46. Butch Wynegar
45. Jack Clements
44. Brian McCann
43. Earl Battey
42. Mike Scioscia
41. Terry Steinbach
40. Tim McCarver
39. Walker Cooper
38. John Romano
37. Darren Daulton
36. Smoky Burgess
35. Manny Sanguillen
34. Victor Martinez
33. Ed Bailey
32. Del Crandall
31. Sherm Lollar
30. Tom Haller
29. Javy Lopez
28. Mickey Tettleton
27. Ernie Lombardi
26. Charlie Bennett
25. Jim Sundberg
24. Wally Schang
23. Lance Parrish
22. Jason Kendall
21. Elston Howard
20. Darrell Porter
19. Buck Ewing
18. Gabby Hartnett
17. Roger Bresnahan
16. Jorge Posada
15. Gene Tenace
14. Thurman Munson
13. Roy Campanella
12. Bill Freehan
11. Joe Mauer
10. Ted Simmons
9. Mickey Cochrane
8. Bill Dickey
7. Carlton Fisk
6. Joe Torre
5. Ivan Rodriguez
4. Yogi Berra
3. Mike Piazza
2. Gary Carter
1. Johnny Bench

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Retroactive Awards 1901

We're going to catch you up on who should be regarded as the best player at each position for each season starting with 1901.
American League Catcher of the Year:
1. Mike Grady
2. Boileryard Clarke
3. Ossee Schrekengost
Notes: Not the strongest year for catchers. Grady gets the nod for first place despite playing only 30 games at catcher for the season because his offensive stats completely dwarf any other catcher for that year. There were only 4 players who had more than 100 plate appearances at catcher who were better than league average at offense.

National League Catcher of the Year:
1. Heinie Peitz
2. Deacon McGuire
3. Klondike Douglass
Notes: Douglass would have ranked 2nd but McGuire had 140 more plate appearances as catcher so I think he was slightly more valuable than Douglass.  Peitz far and away was the best catcher in the National League that year.

American League First Baseman:
1. Buck Freeman
2. Mike Donlin
3. John Anderson
Notes: Donlin has a higher WAR because of his superior defensive numbers. I thnk Freeman had a slightly superior offensive season so I'll put Freeman 1st.

National League First Baseman:
1. Ed Delahanty
2. Joe Kelley
3. Jake Beckley
Notes: Ed D. was pretty clearly the best first baseman in the league that season.

American League Second Baseman:
1. Nap Lajoie
2. Jimmy Williams
3. Sam Mertes
Notes: Lajoie had 9.5 fWAR nearly double what Jimmy Williams had. There were only three above average offensive second baseman in the league that year.

National League Second Baseman:
1. Tom Daly
2. Sammy Strang
3. Claude Ritchey
Notes: Heinie Peitz was in consideration for the top 3 in this spot, as well.  I have Strang over Ritchey despite their fWAR's because Strang had a better wOBA, wRC+, and OBP.  Again, I don't know how accurate defensive rankings are from that long ago.

American League Shortstop:
1. Kid Elberfeld
2. Freddy Parent
3. Bill Keister
Notes: Keister would rank higher but he was apparently a terrible defensive shortstop. Elberfeld wasn't fantastic either but his offensive season was much better than Parent's.

National League Shortstop:
1. Honus Wagner
2. Bobby Wallace
3. George Davis
Notes: Wallace was apparently a fantastic defensive shortstop, but his offensive season was nothing to sneeze at either.  Davis and Wallace's season were almost equal 126 to 122 in wRC+.  My heart's not in it but I'll put Wallace over Davis.

American League Third Baseman:
1. Jimmy Collins
2. John McGraw
3. Lave Cross or Fred Hartman
Notes: John McGraw's offensive season was so good that it doesn't matter that he only played 73 games.  Cross and Hartman are tied in my opinion for third, I can't decide between the two.

National League Third Baseman:
1. Tommy Leach
2. Sammy Strang
3. Harry Wolverton
Notes: Strang was the 2nd best second baseman according to me, too. This was the closest one so far. Leach's fWAR: 3.0 Strang: 2.5 Wolverton: 2.6. Batting average: Leach: .305 Wolverton: .309 Strang:.282. OBP: Leach: .347. Wolverton: .356. Strang: .364. SLG%: Leach: .422 Wolverton: .369. Strang: .341.  wOBA: Leach: .360. Wolverton: .346. Strang: .353. wRC+: Leach: 117 Wolverton: 112 Strang: 115. You couldn't go wrong with either of those three.

American League Left Fielder:
1. Mike Donlin
2. Herm McFarland
3. Jack McCarthy
Notes: Donlin almost won for best first baseman, too. Left field not a strong position for the American League that year. Besides McFarland and Donlin.
National League Left Fielder:
1.Jesse Burkett
2. Jimmy Sheckard
3. Topsy Hartsel
Notes: Would be even tougher if Delahanty hadn't won for best first baseman already. I should probably make a rule that you can only compete at one position. Delahanty probably would have been the best left fielder, too.
American League Centerfielder:
1. Dummy Hoy
2. Chick Stahl
3. Ollie Pickering
Notes: It's a close one but Hoy beats Stahl in the important categories of OBP, wOBA, and wRC+.
National League Centerfielder:
1. Roy Thomas
2. Emmet Heidrick
3. Ginger Beaumont
Notes: Sometimes my rankings are just the fWAR leaderboard, sorry. But George Van Haltren probably deserves to be in the top 3.
American League Right Fielder:
1. Socks Seybold
2. Fielder Jones
3. Ducky Holmes
Notes: Jones might be a better fielder but Seybold was a much better hitter.
National League Right Fielder:
1. Elmer Flick
2. Sam Crawford
3. Lefty Davis
Notes: Flick, by far, the best right fielder in the National League that year. I have Davis over Keeler because of his edge in wOBA and wRC+.

American League Pitcher of the Year:
1. Cy Young
2. Clark Griffith
3. Roscoe Miller
4. Eddie Plank
5. Joe McGinnity
Notes: Cy Young was the best pitcher by far. 2-5 could almost be in any order depending on what you were looking for. Griffith had the highest ERA+ of the four left.

National League Pitcher of the Year:
1.Vic Willis
2. Christy Mathewson
3. Al Orth
4. Noodles Hahn
5. Jack Chesbro
Notes: Mathewson has a slight edge in rWAR but Willis beats him in ERA+ and adjusted pitching wins. Hahn threw a lot of innings and struck out a lot of batters but I can't in good conscience place him above Al Orth, much less Mathewson and Willis.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Baseball Awards American League Cy Young Award Edition

The contenders:
Justin Verlander: fWAR: 7.0 rWAR: 8.6 ERA: 2.40 FIP: 2.99 K/9: 8.96 BB/9:2.04 IP: 251 ERA+: 170
CC Sabathia: fWAR: 7.1 rWAR: 6.9 ERA: 3.00 FIP: 2.88 K/9: 8.72 BB/9: 2.31 IP: 237.1 ERA+: 147
Dan Haren: fWAR: 6.4 rWAR: 4.0 ERA: 3.17 FIP: 2.98 K/9: 7.25 BB/9: 1.25 IP: 238.1 ERA+:120
C.J. Wilson: fWAR: 5.9 rWAR: 5.0 ERA: 2.94 FIP: 3.24 K/9: 8.30 BB/9: 2.98 IP: 223.1 ERA+: 152
Jered Weaver: fWAR: 5.6 rWAR: 6.6 ERA: 2.41 FIP: 3.20 K/9: 7.56 BB/9: 2.14 IP: 235.2 ERA+: 158
Doug Fister: fWAR: 5.6 rWAR:5.7 ERA: 2.83 FIP: 3.02 K/9: 6.07 BB/9: 1.54 IP: 216.2 ERA+: 137
Felix Hernandez: fWAR: 5.5 rWAR: 4.7 ERA: 3.47 FIP: 3.13 K/9: 8.55 BB/9: 2.58 IP: 233.2 ERA+: 111

Notes: First place comes down to Verlander vs. Sabathia.  The difference in fWAR is miniscule, the term statistically significant doesn't even really do it justice.  In Verlander's defense he has the edge in ERA, K/9, BB/9, and innings pitched.  I think the decision should be a little closer than it probably will be but Verlander deserves my first place, non-existent vote.  Second place by a landslide would be Sabathia. 
Third place is basically Weaver vs. Fister.  Fister's ERA during home starts: 2.35, away: 3.36. Weaver comes in third place.
Fister in fourth. 5th place I have C.J. Wilson.
Ballot: 1. Justin Verlander 2. CC Sabathia 3. Jered Weaver 4. Doug Fister 5. C.J. Wilson

Monday, October 3, 2011

The Official RCIAAS Baseball Awards Ballot- Rookie of the Year edition

Each year the BBWAA votes on a set of awards which include the MVP, Cy Young Award, and Rookie of the Year award.  Each year people have debates over who should win each award (the debates are mainly about either the MVP vote or the Cy Young Award).  We will break down each award and see who the rightful winners should be (well according to us). 

We'll start with the Rookie of the Year in the American League first.

The top contenders (in no particular order):
Jeremy Hellickson: 2.95 ERA 4.44 FIP 126 ERA+ 1.4 fWAR 4.2 rWAR 189 IP
Ivan Nova: 3.70 ERA 4.01 FIP 119 ERA+ 2.7 fWAR 3.5 rWAR 165.1 IP
Brett Lawrie: .293/.373/.580/.413 152 OPS+ 163 wRC+ 2.7 fWAR 2.8 rWAR
Dustin Ackley: .273/.348/.417/.340 117 OPS+ 117 wRC+ 2.7 fWAR 2.5 rWAR
Eric Hosmer: .293/.334/.465/.342 118 OPS+ 114 wRC+ 1.6 fWAR 1.3 rWAR
Mark Trumbo: .254/.291/.477/.327 113 OPS+ 105 wRC+ 2.3 fWAR 2.1 rWAR
Michael Pineda: 3.74 ERA 3.42 FIP 103 ERA+ 3.4 fWAR 2.8 rWAR 171 IP
Desmond Jennings: .259/.356/.449/.361 128 OPS+ 131 wRC+ 2.4 fWAR 2.3 rWAR

Notes:  The debate basically boils down to how much you want to rely on FIP which Fangraphs ses to determine WAR.  In their version of WAR they normalize BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) but Baseball-Reference does not so there is a big differenece between the effectiveness of Hellickson, Nova, and Pineda.  Should Hellickson be punished in his WAR for the better defense behind him or should Pineda and Nova be penalized because they do not have as good as defense behind them.  The best hitters in the group Lawrie and Jennings did not play anywhere near a full season, so how much more value do they have over the players who played more? Trumbo's On-base percentage was below .300 which is horrendous.  Hosmer did not have a particularly great season either.  We're going with Pineda in first because of the superior FIP and it is hard to seperate the luck fairies from the ERA.  In second place, we're placing Brett Lawrie because of his superior offensive numbers despite the lack of games played.  In third place, we would vote for Jennings because of the overall quality of his work. 4th place would be Nova and 5th would be Hellickson.

Ballot: 1. Michael Pineda 2. Brett Lawrie 3. Desmond Jennings 4. Ivan Nova 5. Jeremy Hellickson