A new stat that Morris supporters for the Hall of Fame are throwing out there is the fact that Morris had 11 seasons with 235+ innings pitched and 15+ wins. This is a very high number and only Hall of Famers have that many type of seasons. However, like I've said in the past, pitcher wins are essentially useless.
My idea is that if a pitcher throws 235+ innings, he'll way more than likely finish with 15 or more wins. This is just an idea based on the number of starts a pitcher has to make to reach that 235 innings mark. We will not even deal with the fact that 235+ innings sounds like an arbitrary cut-off point designed to make Morris look better.
So from 1980-2011, we'll look at the number of pitchers who threw 235+ innings and had 15+ wins and those pitchers who fell short of the mark.
An* means Morris threw for 235+ innings and won 15 games.
1980*:
23 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
3 pitchers who threw 235+ innings had less than 15 wins.
20/23 pitchers.
1981:
Strike year. No pitcher threw for more than 235 innings.
1982*:
24 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
5 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1983*:
20 pitchers threw for 235+ innings
3 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1984*:
20 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
4 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1985*:
26 pitchers threw for 235+ innings
3 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1986*:
22 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
5 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1987*:
22 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
2 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1988*:
22 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
4 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1989:
16 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
2 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1990*:
7 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1991*:
11 pitchers threw for 235+ innings
3 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1992*:
17 pitchers threw for 235+ innings
3 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1993:
15 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
3 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1994 and 1995: No pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
1996:
12 pitchers threw for 235+ innings
1 pitcher had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1997:
11 pitchers threw for 235+ innings
2 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1998:
7 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
1 pitcher had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
1999:
4 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2000:
6 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
2 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2001:
4 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2002:
5 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2003:
3 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2004:
5 pitchers threw for 235+ innings
1 pitcher had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2005:
5 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2006:
2 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
1 pitcher had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2007:
2 pitchers threw for 235+ innings
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2008:
2 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2009:
3 pitchers thrwe for 235+ innings.
0 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2010:
5 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
2 pitchers had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
2011:
6 pitchers threw for 235+ innings.
1 pitcher had less than 15 wins with 235+ innings.
If you do the whole total, 321 pitchers have thrown 235+ innings in a single season. 51 of those pitchers have thrown 235+ innings in a season and won less than 15 games. Roughly 84% of pitchers who throw 235+ innings in a season will 15+ games since 1980.
If we break this down into the seasons where Morris was pitching, focusing on 1980-1994, we get 245 pitchers who threw 235+ innings in a season. 40 of those pitchers won less than 15 games. The percentage remains essentially the same, being roughly 84% of those pitchers who throw 235+ innings will win 15+ games.
If we break it down, to just the seasons Morris threw 235+ innings, we get 214 pitchers who have thrown 235+ innings. 35 of whom won less than 15 games. Again, it is the same percentage. 84% of pitchers who throw 235+ innings will win 15+ games.
It should be noted that every season Jack Morris pitched 235+ innings, he won 15 games. Anytime, he pitched more than 200 innings, he won 15+ games. Morris had 7 seasons where he failed to pitch 200 innings. In all seasons where he topped 200 innings, he topped 235. This is why, I think 235+ innings pitched is an arbitrary cut-off point designed to make Morris look better. 15 wins is also an arbitrary cut-off point, but that mainly has to do with the facts that wins are essentially useless.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Monday, January 9, 2012
Jon Heyman: Hall of Fame voter
Jon Heyman voted for Don Mattingly over Jeff Bagwell. In his tweets Heyman mentioned that he was the best player in baseball for 3-4 years. He also mentioned that he votes for greatness at one point rather than being good for a number of years. We should also mention that he voted for Jack Morris, as well. So, while I am inspired by Ken Tremendous and FJM, I will look at his ballot and reasoning.
"4. Don Mattingly: Some will argue this is geographic bias. But if anything, it's greatness bias. I like players who were great for a little while a lot more than those who were merely very good forever. He didn't last forever because of a bad back I suspect was earned twisting his 185-pound body into a power hitter. Some of his total numbers aren't overwhelming, but they look a lot like those of Kirby Puckett, an obvious Hall of Famer. Was maybe the best player in the game for three straight years (he won the Sporting News Player of the Year 1984-86) and also was one of the two greatest fielding first basemen of all time. A lot of greatness there."
Well, first we would like to say that by winning the Sporting News Player of the Year award does not necessarily make you a Hall of Famer. Here are a few winners of that award who do not deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. Johnny Allen (1937), Johnny Vander Meer (1938), Spud Chandler (1943), Marty Marion (1944), Bob Turley (1958), Roger Maris (1961), Maury Wills (1962), Danny McLain (1968), Ron Guidry (1978), Fernando Valenzuela (1981), George Bell (1987), Orel Herschiser (1988), Kevin Mitchell (1989), Albert Belle (1995), Ryan Howard (2006). This does not even include players like Ken Boyer, Al Rosen, Phil Rizzuto, Bill Mazeroski, Don Drysdale, Lou Brock, Joe Torre, Gary Sheffield, Rafael Palmeiro, and Sammy Sosa. These players all have had their Hall of Fame candidacy debated. Well not entirely for Rosen.
Secondly, Mattingly did not win the Sporting News Player of the Year award from 1984-1986. He won it once in 1985. Ryne Sandberg won it in 1984 and Roger Clemens won it in 1986. Jeff Bagwell won the same award in 1994. See the paragraph above for a small list of the players who have won the award once or click here to see te past awards. If Heyman is implying that Mattingly was the best player from 1984-1986 because he won tha award for three straight years, he is dead wrong. He won it once.
Third, Mattingly finished in the top 10 for rWAR four times 1984-1987. That is pretty good. Bagwell did it from 1994-1999 including two times leading his league in rWAR. I am not saying that WAR is the end-all of stats but if you're going to say that Mattingly was the best player in baseball for 3-4 years, you should at least consider Bagwell to be the best during his 6 year reign.
Fourth, we'll look at briefly the argument between Mattingly and Puckett. It doesn't matter how similar their numbers are. Puckett was a centerfielder and a pretty good defensive center fielder. If Puckett was able to combine hitting as well as Heyman thinks Mattingly hit while playing a harder defensive position then Puckett would be much more valuable and thus better deserving of the Hall of Fame. But we'll look at Mattingly vs. Puckett. Mattingly: .307/.358/.471 127 OPS+. Puckett: .318/.360/.477 124 OPS+. Puckett was not really considered a power hitting centerfielder but yet somehow Mattingly is considered a power hitting first baseman? My head hurts. Mattingly should have to be a much much better hitter than Puckett in order to be worthy of the Hall of Fame, which just isn't true.
According to rWAR, Mattingly had four All-Star caliber seasons and 0 MVP seasons. Bagwell had 9 All-Star caliber seasons and 3 MVP seasons. Yet somehow, Heyman has delusioned himself into thinking Mattingly had a lot of greatness.
I will not argue with Heyman about the fielding. However, I think it is extremely unlikely that Mattingly was one of the two greatest fielding first basemen of all-time.
Here is what Heyman said about Bagwell.
"7. Jeff Bagwell: The percentages (.540 slugging, .408 on-base) are worthy, and that he won only one Gold Glove and one MVP may have been a matter of timing and the era. Also gets points for uniqueness; not many huge first basemen could run like him (202 stolen bases, 100 runs in eight seasons). Still thinking about it. "
Somehow, despite that Bagwell won the important award Heyman likes to quote, the Sporting News player of the year award, as many times as Mattingly did but there is no greatness for Bagwell. Apparently Bagwell wasn't great....
Bagwell's career OPS+ was 149, Mattingly topped that 3 times. Bagwell topped it 6 times.
Batting average: Mattingly finished top 10, 5 times including one time leading the league. Bagwell finished top 10, 3 times.
On-base percentage: Mattingly finished top 10, 2 times. Bagwell finished top 10, 8 times.
Slugging percentage: Mattingly finished top 10, 5 times. Bagwell finished top 10, 6 times led the league once.
OPS: Mattingly finished top 10, four times, led the league once. Bagwell finished top 10, seven times, led the league once.
OPS+: Bagwell finsihed top 10, five times, led the league twice. Bagwell finished top 10, nine times, led the league once.
I can go on for awhile. However, there is no possible world where Bagwell is not as great as Mattingly. No reasonable person can come to this conclusion.
"4. Don Mattingly: Some will argue this is geographic bias. But if anything, it's greatness bias. I like players who were great for a little while a lot more than those who were merely very good forever. He didn't last forever because of a bad back I suspect was earned twisting his 185-pound body into a power hitter. Some of his total numbers aren't overwhelming, but they look a lot like those of Kirby Puckett, an obvious Hall of Famer. Was maybe the best player in the game for three straight years (he won the Sporting News Player of the Year 1984-86) and also was one of the two greatest fielding first basemen of all time. A lot of greatness there."
Well, first we would like to say that by winning the Sporting News Player of the Year award does not necessarily make you a Hall of Famer. Here are a few winners of that award who do not deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. Johnny Allen (1937), Johnny Vander Meer (1938), Spud Chandler (1943), Marty Marion (1944), Bob Turley (1958), Roger Maris (1961), Maury Wills (1962), Danny McLain (1968), Ron Guidry (1978), Fernando Valenzuela (1981), George Bell (1987), Orel Herschiser (1988), Kevin Mitchell (1989), Albert Belle (1995), Ryan Howard (2006). This does not even include players like Ken Boyer, Al Rosen, Phil Rizzuto, Bill Mazeroski, Don Drysdale, Lou Brock, Joe Torre, Gary Sheffield, Rafael Palmeiro, and Sammy Sosa. These players all have had their Hall of Fame candidacy debated. Well not entirely for Rosen.
Secondly, Mattingly did not win the Sporting News Player of the Year award from 1984-1986. He won it once in 1985. Ryne Sandberg won it in 1984 and Roger Clemens won it in 1986. Jeff Bagwell won the same award in 1994. See the paragraph above for a small list of the players who have won the award once or click here to see te past awards. If Heyman is implying that Mattingly was the best player from 1984-1986 because he won tha award for three straight years, he is dead wrong. He won it once.
Third, Mattingly finished in the top 10 for rWAR four times 1984-1987. That is pretty good. Bagwell did it from 1994-1999 including two times leading his league in rWAR. I am not saying that WAR is the end-all of stats but if you're going to say that Mattingly was the best player in baseball for 3-4 years, you should at least consider Bagwell to be the best during his 6 year reign.
Fourth, we'll look at briefly the argument between Mattingly and Puckett. It doesn't matter how similar their numbers are. Puckett was a centerfielder and a pretty good defensive center fielder. If Puckett was able to combine hitting as well as Heyman thinks Mattingly hit while playing a harder defensive position then Puckett would be much more valuable and thus better deserving of the Hall of Fame. But we'll look at Mattingly vs. Puckett. Mattingly: .307/.358/.471 127 OPS+. Puckett: .318/.360/.477 124 OPS+. Puckett was not really considered a power hitting centerfielder but yet somehow Mattingly is considered a power hitting first baseman? My head hurts. Mattingly should have to be a much much better hitter than Puckett in order to be worthy of the Hall of Fame, which just isn't true.
According to rWAR, Mattingly had four All-Star caliber seasons and 0 MVP seasons. Bagwell had 9 All-Star caliber seasons and 3 MVP seasons. Yet somehow, Heyman has delusioned himself into thinking Mattingly had a lot of greatness.
I will not argue with Heyman about the fielding. However, I think it is extremely unlikely that Mattingly was one of the two greatest fielding first basemen of all-time.
Here is what Heyman said about Bagwell.
"7. Jeff Bagwell: The percentages (.540 slugging, .408 on-base) are worthy, and that he won only one Gold Glove and one MVP may have been a matter of timing and the era. Also gets points for uniqueness; not many huge first basemen could run like him (202 stolen bases, 100 runs in eight seasons). Still thinking about it. "
Somehow, despite that Bagwell won the important award Heyman likes to quote, the Sporting News player of the year award, as many times as Mattingly did but there is no greatness for Bagwell. Apparently Bagwell wasn't great....
Bagwell's career OPS+ was 149, Mattingly topped that 3 times. Bagwell topped it 6 times.
Batting average: Mattingly finished top 10, 5 times including one time leading the league. Bagwell finished top 10, 3 times.
On-base percentage: Mattingly finished top 10, 2 times. Bagwell finished top 10, 8 times.
Slugging percentage: Mattingly finished top 10, 5 times. Bagwell finished top 10, 6 times led the league once.
OPS: Mattingly finished top 10, four times, led the league once. Bagwell finished top 10, seven times, led the league once.
OPS+: Bagwell finsihed top 10, five times, led the league twice. Bagwell finished top 10, nine times, led the league once.
I can go on for awhile. However, there is no possible world where Bagwell is not as great as Mattingly. No reasonable person can come to this conclusion.
Our Hall of Fame votes
I know we posted who we would vote for already, but we'll post it again here. This way there is no confusion about who we are voting for, for our very few readers.
In
1. Jeff Bagwell
2. Edgar Martinez
3. Mark McGwire
4. Larry Walker
5. Alan Trammell
6. Barry Larkin
7. Tim Raines
8. Rafael Palmeiro
9. Fred McGriff
10. Dale Murphy
If Jack Morris gets in today, I will be very sad. I'm hoping Larkin gets 75% of the votes.
In
1. Jeff Bagwell
2. Edgar Martinez
3. Mark McGwire
4. Larry Walker
5. Alan Trammell
6. Barry Larkin
7. Tim Raines
8. Rafael Palmeiro
9. Fred McGriff
10. Dale Murphy
If Jack Morris gets in today, I will be very sad. I'm hoping Larkin gets 75% of the votes.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Nebraska Football
Coaches after Tom Osborne:
Frank Solich: 58-19 (34-15)
Notes: 1 Division Title, 1 conference championship, 1 National Championship appearance
Bill Callahan 27-22 (15-17)
Notes: 1 division title.
Bo Pelini 39-16 (22-10)
Notes: 2 division titles.
Frank Solich: 58-19 (34-15)
Notes: 1 Division Title, 1 conference championship, 1 National Championship appearance
Bill Callahan 27-22 (15-17)
Notes: 1 division title.
Bo Pelini 39-16 (22-10)
Notes: 2 division titles.
Every Nebraska football game
Here is a collection of stati from every Nebraska Cornhusker loss:
The referees are killing us.
The refs are screwing us.
Does anyone feel that the refs hate us?
Does anyone feel like the refs are rooting for the other team?
The refs are just giving the other team the victory.
It's one thing to be outplayed, another to be screwed by the refs.
The referees are killing us.
The refs are screwing us.
Does anyone feel that the refs hate us?
Does anyone feel like the refs are rooting for the other team?
The refs are just giving the other team the victory.
It's one thing to be outplayed, another to be screwed by the refs.
Ron Coomer is an All-Star Hall of Fame: First Base
In the RCIAAS Hall of Fame, second wing: first base.
In:
1. Lou Gehrig: HOF score: 94.46. All-Star Seasons: 13. MVP Seasons: 10.
2. Jimmie Foxx: HOF score: 78.87. All-Star Seasons: 10. MVP Seasons: 6.
3. Roger Connor: HOF score: 57.15. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 1.
4. Jeff Bagwell: HOF score: 56.43. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 3.
5. Dan Brouthers: HOF score: 55.06. All-Star Seasons: 9. MVP Seasons: 2.
6. Johnny Mize: HOF score: 51.96. All-Star Seasons: 9. MVP Seasons: 0.
7. Hank Greenberg: HOF score: 50.59. All-Star Seasons: 7. MVP Seasons: 2.
8. Cap Anson: HOF score: 49.85. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 0.
9. Dick Allen: HOF score: 48.2. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 3.
10. Willie McCovey: HOF score: 47.86. All-Star Seasons: 7. MVP Seasons: 1.
11. George Sisler: HOF score: 47.29. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 2.
12. Mark McGwire: HOF Score: 46.41. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 1.
13. Bill Terry: HOF Score: 44. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 1.
14. Eddie Murray: HOF Score: 42.94. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 0.
15. Harmon Killebrew: HOF Score: 41.88. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 0.
16. Rafael Palmeiro: HOF score: 41.74. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 0.
17. Keith Hernandez: HOF score: 40.24. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 0.
18. John Olerud: HOF score: 39.35. All-Star Seasons: 3. MVP Seasons: 2.
19. Frank Chance: HOF Score: 38.84. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 1.
20. Norm Cash: HOF score: 38.75. All-Star Seasons: 3. MVP Seasons: 1.
21. Tony Perez: HOF Score: 38.4. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 0.
Willing to Consider:
1. Will Clark: HOF Score: 36.91. All-Star Seasons: 3. MVP Seasons: 1.
2. Fred McGriff: HOF Score: 36.46. All-Star Seasons: 4. MVP Seasons: 0.
3. Dolf Camilli: HOF Score: 35.26. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 0.
Not yet eligible:
1. Albert Pujols: HOF Score: 73.41. All-Star Seasons: 11. MVP Seasons: 7.
2. Frank Thomas: HOF Score: 51.47. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 0.
3. Todd Helton: HOF Score: 46.39. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 1.
4. Jim Thome: HOF Score: 43.76. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 0.
5. Jason Giambi: HOF Score: 42.16. All-Star Seasons: 4. MVP Seasons: 2.
6. Lance Berkman: HOF Score: 40.79. All-Star Seasons: 7. MVP Seasons: 0.
7. Miguel Cabrera: HOF Score: 34.69. All-Star Seasons: 4. MVP Seasons: 0.
In:
1. Lou Gehrig: HOF score: 94.46. All-Star Seasons: 13. MVP Seasons: 10.
2. Jimmie Foxx: HOF score: 78.87. All-Star Seasons: 10. MVP Seasons: 6.
3. Roger Connor: HOF score: 57.15. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 1.
4. Jeff Bagwell: HOF score: 56.43. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 3.
5. Dan Brouthers: HOF score: 55.06. All-Star Seasons: 9. MVP Seasons: 2.
6. Johnny Mize: HOF score: 51.96. All-Star Seasons: 9. MVP Seasons: 0.
7. Hank Greenberg: HOF score: 50.59. All-Star Seasons: 7. MVP Seasons: 2.
8. Cap Anson: HOF score: 49.85. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 0.
9. Dick Allen: HOF score: 48.2. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 3.
10. Willie McCovey: HOF score: 47.86. All-Star Seasons: 7. MVP Seasons: 1.
11. George Sisler: HOF score: 47.29. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 2.
12. Mark McGwire: HOF Score: 46.41. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 1.
13. Bill Terry: HOF Score: 44. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 1.
14. Eddie Murray: HOF Score: 42.94. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 0.
15. Harmon Killebrew: HOF Score: 41.88. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 0.
16. Rafael Palmeiro: HOF score: 41.74. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 0.
17. Keith Hernandez: HOF score: 40.24. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 0.
18. John Olerud: HOF score: 39.35. All-Star Seasons: 3. MVP Seasons: 2.
19. Frank Chance: HOF Score: 38.84. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 1.
20. Norm Cash: HOF score: 38.75. All-Star Seasons: 3. MVP Seasons: 1.
21. Tony Perez: HOF Score: 38.4. All-Star Seasons: 5. MVP Seasons: 0.
Willing to Consider:
1. Will Clark: HOF Score: 36.91. All-Star Seasons: 3. MVP Seasons: 1.
2. Fred McGriff: HOF Score: 36.46. All-Star Seasons: 4. MVP Seasons: 0.
3. Dolf Camilli: HOF Score: 35.26. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 0.
Not yet eligible:
1. Albert Pujols: HOF Score: 73.41. All-Star Seasons: 11. MVP Seasons: 7.
2. Frank Thomas: HOF Score: 51.47. All-Star Seasons: 8. MVP Seasons: 0.
3. Todd Helton: HOF Score: 46.39. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 1.
4. Jim Thome: HOF Score: 43.76. All-Star Seasons: 6. MVP Seasons: 0.
5. Jason Giambi: HOF Score: 42.16. All-Star Seasons: 4. MVP Seasons: 2.
6. Lance Berkman: HOF Score: 40.79. All-Star Seasons: 7. MVP Seasons: 0.
7. Miguel Cabrera: HOF Score: 34.69. All-Star Seasons: 4. MVP Seasons: 0.
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